As I prepare to head back to the USA, it’s intriguing to be crossing the Atlantic at a time when the Special Relationship feels strained. This video offers key insights, and I wanted to share my thoughts on it.
The Battle Between Yalta and Helsinki, the Return of Intelligence-Led Warfare, and What It Means for the World
The world is in flux. The unipolar moment of U.S. dominance that followed the Cold War is over, replaced by a multipolar contest where power is contested, alliances shift, and intelligence warfare has overtaken traditional military confrontations. In this new era, Sir Alex Younger, former head of MI6 (2014-2020), argues that the most decisive battles will not be fought on the battlefield but in the realms of cyber warfare, disinformation, economic leverage, and intelligence operations.
At stake is nothing less than the future of the global order. Sir Alex frames the contest as a battle between two competing models:
1. The Yalta Model – Named after the 1945 conference where the world was divided into spheres of influence, this model promotes the idea that great powers dictate regional politics. Russia, China, and other revisionist states advocate this vision.
2. The Helsinki Model – Based on the 1975 Helsinki Accords, this vision defends national sovereignty, democracy, and a rules-based international order, championed by NATO, the EU, and Western democracies.
The Ukraine war is the most explicit manifestation of this ideological war—Russia seeks to reassert its sphere of influence, while the West’s military, economic, and intelligence support to Kyiv is meant to preserve a rules-based world order. But this is only one front in a much larger, more complex intelligence-driven geopolitical war.
Continue reading Yalta vs. Helsinki – Sir Alex Younger and the New Global Intelligence Order