Hot Off the Press: This isn’t a political endorsement; rather, it’s a reflection on an epoch-turning moment in history.
Tl;dr: This is Trump’s America or rather more prosaically Trump has triumphed.
300 Electoral Seats and winning the popular vote by a margin of 5mm | Control of the Senate, House, Supreme Court & Majority of State Governors.
Thatcherism – BREXIT- Now Trumpism. The Anglo-Americann Empire Strikes Back.
I deliberately slept through the elections to avoid the hysteria, but now that I’m awake, the reality is undeniable. Trump has accomplished what few in political history have managed to achieve.
Just as Barack Obama served as a counter to the excesses of Bushism, we now see Trumpism as the definitive response to Obamism. This raises the question: Is this phenomenon rooted in white supremacy, anti-imperialism, populism, reactionism, or simply patriotism? Historians will unpack this epoch-making victory for generations to come. It’s hilarious how in the early millennium we were wondering about the Bush-Clinton domination of US politics for decades to come and now the paradigm is unimaginably different (except for the Simpsons).
Key Victories:
1. Trump has won the popular vote (this is BREXIT).
2. Trump successfully flipped key swing states—Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin—that he lost in the 2020 election, securing over 270 electoral votes. Will he hit 300?
3. Trump garnered increased support from Black, Muslim, and Hispanic Americans, contributing to his broad-based coalition.
4.Trump has secured every swing seat (echoing Boris’s 2019 victory).
5.His victory coincided with Republicans regaining control of the Senate, enhancing his legislative influence & perhaps more importantly ensuring a conservative Supreme Court for a generation.
7.Trump has taken the House (with absolute control of the legislative apparatus).
8.Trump won Miami-Dade County in Florida, marking the first Republican victory there since 1988. Does that mean identity and voting don’t align?
9.Trump has retained governorships (signaling a future of Republicanism at the state level).
10.Despite surviving two assassination attempts during the campaign, Trump maintained his candidacy and achieved victory.
The magnitude of this victory, achieved in an era where elections are often too close to call, challenges the cultural narrative & expectations (were people lying to pollsters?). It signifies:
•The end of the Obama-Clinton straitjacket on the Democratic Party, paving the way for populist figures like AOC. The political end of Kamala Harris and Joe Biden, who represent the last remnants of a 32-year era that began with Bill Clinton.
•An increase in progressive activism; movements like BLM have thrived even amidst Trump’s presidency.
Expect a shift in legislation towards the right, with debates over guns and abortion likely settled for the foreseeable future. Assimilation pressures will intensify, compelling Black and Indigenous communities to solidify their identities while immigrants will face expectations to assimilate into white America. We may witness a reconfiguration of Hispanic identities into distinct blocs (similarly with Asians & Muslim ethnicities), reminiscent of previous ethnic group dynamics in America (some will become white or white-adjacent and the others solidly BIPOC, presumably mirroring socio-economic divides).
Trump is only the second man in U.S. history to be elected president after losing a prior election; Grover Cleveland won the presidency in 1884, lost in 1888, and then won again in 1892, serving two non-consecutive terms (making him both the 22nd and 24th president). I had initially thought it was Theodore Roosevelt but I was wrong.
With Trump as a pivotal figure in this political landscape, his heirs, such as Vance and Musk, are poised to influence future directions (Musk has money but Vance has birthright & a South Indian wife). Post-Trump, the Republican Party may splinter, mirroring how RFK Jr. transitioned to the GOP. UK-US politics (and that of the 5 Eyes) are vibrant two-party blood sports.
America is set to embrace multipolarity and potentially less military intervention—policies that don’t serve the interests of the “deep state” but the populism Trump represents.
Global Reactions: World leaders, including Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu and UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, extended congratulations, indicating potential shifts in international relations but of course Nigel Farage stole the moment.
This reflection aims to encapsulate the shifting tides in our political landscape. Your thoughts?
Bill Clinton sold the family silver to the Chinese. The repercussions of moving manufacturing to China reverberate loud and strong even more so now. The Clintons, the Bush and Obama were all establishment appointees.
The huge abandoned factories in upstate NY were a visual embodiment of those terrible decisions. This decline of the US started way back in the 90’s and every successor of Clinton made it worse. The crazy banking crisis of 2008 magnified the obvious problems but not a single politician even acknowledged the ramifications of all these crazy events over the years combined with unprecedented immigration both legal and illegal.
A high school diploma used to be enough back in the 70’s to own a house, two cars and a lake home. Not anymore. The American dream is not for the blue collar guy anymore. That’s privy to all the students who come to the US, take an education on US tax paper money and then get jobs. While young Americans struggle with student loans.
Not saying it’s right or wrong, that’s how many folks view the newer waves of immigrants.
Toss in the state of the economy. Hard to believe grocery prices are the way they are now compared to even a decade back.
So, Trump is just the manifestation of all these issues coming together. C’est la vie?
Scott Galloway has a fabulous video on some of the issues plaguing US colleges. Check it out.
The kids of the abandoned factory workers are doing better than their parents on average. The US is more prosperous than it used to be when it had all those factory jobs. Always focusing on the few people who (unfortunately) lose their livelihood due to transnational economic factors while missing the major changes in the macroeconomy is very unhelpful (and in the long run counterproductive). Though, of course, there is a huge market for such pessimism, and that market just pushed Trump and Vance to the White House.
I’m highly skeptical that this was the typical case rather than an outlier. Setting that aside, one can think of other factors than general economics and trade trends that impact housing availability and prices. Number one are laws that prohibit new housing development in areas where most people actually want to live (somewhat urban areas). Number two is the big demographic change whereby there are a lot more older people who already own houses (either inherited or earned in their youth) compared to young people just getting a start in their careers. So overall, much less supply compared to demand; present homeowners can basically name their rental or sale price, driving valuations up. (This is my amateur analysis, but I’m just trying to show that there are alternatives to blaming everything on trade, offshoring, immigration, etc.)
Show me data to prove your various assertions. Hand waving isn’t analysis lol. What I outlined are obvious causes over time that have snowballed into the manifestation of Trump carrying 300 electoral college votes and the popular vote.
If you lived in the US of the 1970’s you would know what prosperity I meant.
Did you live in the US in the 70’s?
I think there is an element of nostalgia and also “for whom.”
Absolutely we are *all* better off, but relatively we may not be.
I do not think that the Clintons-Bushes & Obamas were especially Establishment.
The Establishment accommodates itself to power and vice versa.
Thatcherism couldn’t be more different from Trumpism. The former was in the same category as Reaganism, which Trump and his MAGA movement have now comprehensively defeated.
Umm…..Vance’s and Musk’s respective worldviews and ideologies are so different now that it’s hard to see what they would have in common once Trump (who they both latched on to as an anti-establishment figure) leaves the scene. Vance once used to be part of the neoliberal crowd, which ultimately Musk is still part of (he wants and needs globalization and unfettered market capitalism), but for whatever reason turned into a blood-and-soil populist. There’s going to be a honeymoon period for the election winners, but I’m sure tensions will emerge sooner rather than later.
Trumpism is going to define the rest of this decade; so in a way he influences 2016 on since he kind of obliterates the Biden legacy (just not enough consolidation for Obama since Trump is so contrasting).
“reminiscent of previous ethnic group dynamics in America (some will become white or white-adjacent and the others solidly BIPOC, presumably mirroring socio-economic divides).”
Where would you place Rajiv Malhotra, Hindu America Foundation etc?
I think “Hindu Americans” are the beige contingent. For context:
https://www.nytimes.com/1998/08/16/magazine/the-beige-and-the-black.html
the world BIPOC is very 2020
we ain’t woke no more
I think this is an interesting take.
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