Brown Pundits – A discussion of all things Brown..

India’s Guest. America’s Kill.

X.T.M · March 5, 2026 · 9 comments

On the 4th of March 2026, a US submarine torpedoed the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena in the Indian Ocean, 40 nautical miles off the coast of Galle, Sri Lanka. At least 87 sailors were killed. Over a hundred remain missing. Pete Hegseth called it “quiet death” from the Pentagon podium; bragging it was the first torpedo kill since World War II.

MILAN at Vyzag

The IRIS Dena had just left Visakhapatnam. It had been India’s guest. Formally invited to MILAN 2026, the International Fleet Review hosted by the Indian Navy, attended by 86 ships from 74 nations. The Eastern Naval Command had tweeted a welcome photograph two weeks earlier: “reflecting long-standing cultural links between the two nations.”

Two weeks later, that ship is on the ocean floor. And from New Delhi, silence. Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said it plainly: Frigate Dena, a guest of India’s Navy, was struck in international waters without warning. That line will not be forgotten in Tehran. It should not be forgotten in New Delhi either; because it is the most precise summary available of what Modi’s diplomatic positioning has actually cost India.

When guests are murdered

Say what you want about Pakistan’s post-colonial elite; and there is plenty to say. But since Pahalgam they have been reading the room better than New Delhi has. Not because Islamabad became richer or more competent. Neither of those things happened. What happened is simpler: when the bombs fell on Iran, Pakistan said nothing loud, and that silence was itself a signal. Across the Muslim world that signal was heard. Loyalty travels farther than power. Whether that loyalty is strategic or genuine is a separate question. The effect is the same.

Pakistan Post-Pahalgam Continue reading India’s Guest. America’s Kill.

2026 Iran War and the Gulf

sbarrkum · March 5, 2026 · 26 comments

Header Image: US Bases in Mid East. Iran is the only Sovereign country in the Mid East without US Bases

“God created war so that Americans would learn geography” ― Mark Twain

Why are the Gulf Countries not attacking Iran. Because they are extremely vulnerable
a) Resource and Economic Vulnerability
b) Political, Regimes can be overthrown
c) Targets because they host US Bases.

The US though they have bases in the Gulf, have not come to the aid of Gulf Countries. To the contrary they are evacuating personnel from the Gulf.

Bahrain: Politically Vulnerable: Hosts the biggest US base in the Gulf. It is also has Shia 50% with Sunni regime. The Shia majority have been very restive and any war related turmoil can allow the Shia to overthrow the Sunni Regime. (Shias were previously the majority, being approximately 55% in 1979. However, the increased naturalization of Sunni migrants and persecution of Shia Muslims by the ruling Sunni Al Khalifa family led to an alteration in the demographics.)

Qatar: Has the biggest LNG production and they have shut down production. Why: Cant afford to have drones or missiles or even debris hitting the storage. The whole storage will go up like a Nuclear Bomb
Qatar accounts for 20% of global LNG exports, with 80% of those volumes to Asia.

Saudi Arabia: Like Qatar Saudi Arabia is Resource attack vulnerable. Oil production can go up in flames even though the oil is less volatile. Also with the Gulf or Hormuz shut down oil exports are nearly nill. However, they have pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. So Saudis need to also keep Houthis happy so that the oil that reaches Yanbu and loaded into Tankers is not attacked by Houthis. (Only about 1 million barrells/day to Yanbu, compared to 6.8 miilion Barrells/day thru Gulf Hormuz.
Saudi too has significant Shia population (10-15%) located near the oil fields in the Eastern Province (Najran, and Medina)

UAE/Dubai; Very Economically vulnerable. Falling Debris has closed Dubai Airport, the busiest in the world. Dubai is an Worlds Financial center in the League of Hong Kong, London and New York. 90*% of Dubai are expatriates, some extremely wealthy. Revenues from oil and natural gas account for less than 5% of the Emirate’s revenues. If Iran hits world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa thats the end of Dubais Economic Wonder.

So as you can see the Gulf countries need to play nice with Iran until the wsr End.

How will the War End. (some possibilities)
a) Iran Runs out of Missiles. (also low probability of layers of Iran Leadership Killed)
b) US Missiles are depleted
c) US has an Economic Shock (eg Stocks, DJI falls significantly eg to 40,000. Or US Treasury Bond yields spike to above 5%

When the dust settles regardless of Iran having lost it is going to be new Landscape in the Gulf. The US bases are most likely gone. When personnel are evacuated the looters come in like ants to dead carcass.

Saudi East-West Pipeline can pump oil from the country’s main eastern oilfields to the Red Sea and has capacity to transport around five million bpd if Yanbu has the capacity to load that amount of crude the pipeline can carry onto ships, traders and buyers said. Crude loadings at Yanbu hit a peak of just under 1.5 million bpd in April 2020
https://www.bairdmaritime.com/shipping/tankers/aramco-moves-oil-flows-to-red-sea-as-hormuz-grinds-to-a-halt

What the map below shows is that, due to a peculiar correlation of religious history and anaerobic decomposition of plankton, almost all the Persian Gulfs fossil fuels are located underneath Shiites. This is true even in Sunni Saudi Arabia, where the major oil fields are in the Eastern Province, which has a majority Shiite population.

https://theintercept.com/2016/01/06/one-map-that-explains-the-dangerous-saudi-iranian-conflict/

Belief, borders and bombs: What long-term instability in Iran means for Pakistan

Kabir · March 4, 2026 · 4 comments

An important article in DAWN by Zia ur Rehman:

Zia ur Rehman is “a journalist and researcher, who writes for The New York Times and Nikkei Asia, among other publications. He also assesses democratic and conflict development in Pakistan for various policy institutes”

Some excerpts:

Islamabad and Tehran share a 900-kilometre border that has long been vulnerable to militant activity, smuggling networks, and sectarian spillover. Pakistan is also home to an estimated 15 to 20 per cent Shia population, one of the largest outside Iran. Many in this community look to Tehran’s clergy and leadership for religious guidance and, at times, political support.

Experts and Pakistani security officials warn that instability in Iran could increase cross-border movement by armed groups and inflame sectarian tensions within Pakistan’s already polarised society.

Continue reading Belief, borders and bombs: What long-term instability in Iran means for Pakistan

Modi Puts India Firmly in the Israel-US Camp

X.T.M · March 4, 2026 · 13 comments

Modi’s strong support for Israel – and refusal to condemn the Israel-U.S. strikes on Iran, a long-time friend of India’s – have “diminished India’s stature in the eyes of the world.”

Journalist Bharat Bhushan wrote in Deccan Herald that with the recent visit, Modi has put India “firmly in the U.S.-Israeli camp.”

That is not a space that India should be in if it is hoping to lead the Global South, especially in the context of Israel’s continuing war on Gaza and the latest Israel-U.S. military strikes on Iran.

On Whose Side Is God?

X.T.M · March 3, 2026 · 65 comments

The Wrong Question About Barbarians

Omar’s excellent piece raises the question of barbarians. I want to raise a harder one: whose side is God on? I ask this not as theology but as military analysis. Because the planners of Operation Epic Fury appear to have assumed the answer is obvious; and that assumption may be the central miscalculation of this war.

Isfahan: A Rich History and Unique Tourist Attractions - Persis Collection — *Barbanians*

The Pahlavist Map of Iran

The Pahlavists who helped guide this operation are, broadly speaking, secular liberals. Their Iran is Tehran’s northern suburbs, Los Angeles, Paris. Their model of the enemy is a man like themselves: attached to life, afraid of death, protecting assets and family and position.

Rational actors in the economic sense. You remove the leader, you remove the fear, the system collapses. This is a coherent theory of change. It just happens to be wrong about the specific civilization it was applied to.

Iran faces a pivotal moment. Can a tired regime contain a fresh wave of ... — Pretender to the Peacock Throne

The Gift of Martyrdom

Shia Islam is not organised around the fear of death. It is organised around the embrace of honourable death as the supreme spiritual achievement. Karbala is not a trauma to be processed; it is a template to be repeated. Husayn did not miscalculate when he rode into the plain knowing Yazid’s army outnumbered him. He made a theological choice.

The willingness to die without surrendering is not a bug in the Shia operating system. It is the entire point of the operating system. When you assassinate a Supreme Leader who has spent forty years framing his rule in exactly these terms, you do not break the system. You hand it the most powerful gift available: a martyr. Khamenei is now Husayn. The Americans gave him that.

Ashura Mourning Procession in Karbala, Iraq by students. - Islamic ... — *Yá Husayn*

On Sky Gods and the Human Spirit Continue reading On Whose Side Is God?

Allama Iqbal’s Dream Fulfilled; West Pakistan Defends India Against the Barbarians..

Omar Ali · March 2, 2026 · 41 comments

Since the world has been set alight and everyone has a theory, I will put out my pet theory and invite comments. In 1930 Allama Iqbal (supposed father of the idea of Pakistan) proposed a consolidated Muslim state in Northwest India as a solution to the problem of Muslim Nationalism in India. The part that is relevant to us today is his claim that such a state will defend India against the Barbarians to its West (his words were: “the North-West Indian Muslims will prove the best defenders of India against a foreign invasion, be that invasion one of ideas or of bayonets. “).

Iqbal, being a romantic Islamist in an age when the British Empire seemed a permanent fact of life had confused ideas about many things, and his vision of a Northwest Muslim state was as confused and romantic as any of his other dreams, but in this case he hit on something real.. Pakistan is the buffer that protects India from the Middle Eastern snakepit. Of course, it is also an example of the same snakepit extending into the Indian subcontinent, but it is worth remembering that India at one point was almost entirely colonized by Islalmicate invaders from the Northwest. Now that invasive colonial culture is concentrated in Pakistan; and with the war with Afghanistan, it is now directed against the very people it once idealized.

So my point is that Indians should thank Jinnah for his service. They now have a fighting chance of escaping the Middle eastern cannon fodder trap and becoming a successful Asian country.
Choose wisely. Let Pakistan be more in the Middle East. Be more Asian.

And for Pakistan the answer is also the same. Try to be more Indian, less Middle eastern. But our road home may be convoluted. Even Indonesia is not home free, our path is going to be rockier..

Here is the relevant quote from the Allahabad address (full text in link)

Zahak versus Husayni

X.T.M · March 1, 2026 · 32 comments

On March 1, 2026, Reza Pahlavi issued his statement on the killing of Ali Khamenei: “Ali Khamenei, the Zahhak of our time; the evil being who, just a few weeks ago, issued the order to slaughter tens of thousands of Iran’s finest children, is gone.“

The Shahnameh framing was not ornamental. For years, Pahlavi has used the Zahhak figure, the serpent-shouldered tyrant who fed on the brains of Iran’s youth, as his shorthand for the Islamic Republic.

And Khamenei, symmetrically, had organized his entire ideological project around the Husayni archetype: the martyr of Karbala, the one who refused submission before Yazid’s overwhelming power. Every day is Ashura. Every land is Karbala. That was the grammar of the revolution.

Now the “Zahhak” is dead (or the Husseiny attained martyrdom depending on your viewpoint). The question that follows is the only one that matters: who is Iran? Continue reading Zahak versus Husayni

Open Thread: Israel Strikes Iran

X.T.M · February 28, 2026 · 134 comments

Tehran has been bombed; University Street, home to a Military Intelligence base, has been struck.

Today is 9/11 in the Muslim calendar: the 11th of Ramadan, the 9th and holiest month.

US Marine guards at the American Consulate in Karachi opened fire on Shia protesters attempting to storm the compound, killing at least 12. Pakistani police and paramilitary Rangers were also present. The Sindh chief minister has ordered a probe into the deaths.

Shia communities in Kargil are mourning the death of their leader.

Imam Khamenei was not just a leader for Iran but seemingly for Muslims around the world. The Muslims of Kashmir took to the streets upon hearing news of Seyyed Khamenei’s martyrdom.

Open Thread – “Open War” breaks out between Pakistan and Afghanistan

RecoveringNewsJunkie · February 27, 2026 · 41 comments

This is a quote from Pakistan’s ‘defence minister’ from a couple of hours ago. There is a shooting war on the Durand line, and the PAF has bombed Kabul and Kandahar, including the airport, Taliban ministry buildings and other non-military targets.

This round of AfPak hostilities kicked off with a ‘surgical airstrike’ by Pakistan into Afghanistan that resulted in multiple civilian deaths. The Taliban retaliated by attacking Pakistani border outposts on the Durand Line, and claim to have captured more than a dozen of them, with Pakistani POWs and KIA. In response, the PAF has now bombed Kabul and Kandahar.

The Taliban, the erstwhile creation of the ISI, is now at war with Pakistan. Where does this go from here?

Operation “Righteous Fury”: Pakistani airstrikes on Afghanistan

Kabir · February 27, 2026 · 16 comments

Pakistan struck Afghanistan early Friday morning in response to Afghan attacks Thursday night on various locations in KPK.

According to Defense Minister Khawaja Asif, the Taliban have become “a proxy for India”. Asif said: “Our patience has run out. Now there is an open war”.

Those criticizing this operation should recognize that this is exactly the playbook India used in “Operation Sindoor”. War is obviously not a good outcome for anyone but national security trumps everything. There had been a Qatar and Turkey mediated ceasefire between Pakistan and Afghanistan but the Taliban have clearly not clamped down on TTP.

There seems to have been a “rally around the flag” effect with even the PTI making social media posts in support of Pakistan’s armed forces.

DAWN’s live blog is here